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What is risk to a retired person

How is risk defined for a retired investor? This Forbes post offers an interesting answer:

http://tinyurl.com/zas8eg9

Baby boomers, share this with your kids as they begin working....

A Business Insider post explains why you should start investing before 30:

http://tinyurl.com/j44fkmj

Single biggest cost in retirement?... Healthcare

Women may need $80k more than men for healthcare in retirement,

Money cautions: http://tinyurl.com/hqo6gom

Click on the link above to read the article.

Some lessons we should all teach our daughters

What 5 key financial points should all women understand?

Take a look at this Kiplinger.com article: http://tinyurl.com/jstd3vc

Ways women can make up the Income Inequality Gap

Why should women work past 62?

The Motley Fool presents the financial reasons for retiring later @ http://tinyurl.com/zjl5dxr

Click on the link above to access the article

Business Owners: It's 2017.... Here are some strategies to consider

Business.com presents 5 bold online strategies more business owners should think about trying:

http://tinyurl.com/jpybntr

It's a New Year, stop procrastinating and take care of this

Do you have a will? You need one.

Half of Americans don't have a will, a Gallup survey found last year....

Money shows you specific issues that a will must address, and more: http://tinyurl.com/h2jbezm

The market is down 20%...Now what?

"Happy New Years!" says the Market, while giving investors a 6% decline the first week of January, the worst first week % decline ever recorded for the S&P 500.

As of this writing (Jan 26, 2016), here are the major US indexes and their declines from all-time highs in 2015.

Index

# of stocks

% from 2015 highs

Dow Jones

30

-15.8%

S&P 500

500

-15.1%

NYSE Comp

1900+

-20.6%

Russell 2000

2000

-26.0%

Nasdaq Comp

3100+

-17.6%

 

For "do it yourself" investors, I'd like you to think about these questions as you read through:

1) Is it worth going it alone at this stage in the market cycle?

2) Could you afford to hold through a series of multiple 15-20%+ declines during the next 3-4 years?

3) Do you know where to properly invest during the tail end of a bull market?

 

For investors who may already have a financial advisor, I'd like you to think about these questions as you read through:

1) Are you positioned properly for the tail end of a bull market?  (More importantly, do you know how to position properly for a bear market?)

2) Could you afford to hold through a series of multiple 15-20%+ declines during the next 3-4 years?

3) Have you discussed with your advisor the areas to invest during a bull to bear market transition?

 

Bull Market Scenario

Allow me to present the case that the current Market decline is merely a correction in the midst of the larger bull market.  The Market has held expected support levels.  In other words, buyers have stepped in where they are supposed to in order to keep prices from falling further.

I’ve highlighted three (3) dotted lines as areas of support that this 4th stage should hold.  They are 1884, 1820, 1730. 

In our opinion, if 1730 breaks decisively, then the odds of a deeper correction (or bear market) grow significantly.

Blog 1.26.15.png

 

But...if you look at some of the broader indexes such as the NYSE, it becomes a little murky.  It appears that the NYSE has already broken its bullish trend, which is something to watch.

 

Blog1.png

 

Bear Market Scenario (Bull ended May 2015)

Conversely, let me present a case that the bull market might, in fact, already be over.  If we view price being “above or below” a moving average as bullish/bearish, then one could make the case that most of the indices are in a bearish (negative) posture.

 

Please see our thoughts on some of the major indexes:

S&P 500

Blog2.png

 

New York Stock Exchange

Blog3.png

 

Russell 2000

Blog4.png

 

Let's look at crude oil...Conventional thought is that while low oil prices may hurt energy companies, consumers should have more money to spur the retail sector. 

Blog5.png

 

If that is the case, then why have retail stocks declined 25% since last summer while oil has gone from $60 to $30?

 

Blog6.png

By no means do we think the world is coming to an end.  However, expansion and contraction are perfectly natural during a normal market cycle.  It is our job to identify these inflection points in order to be the best stewards of our clients assets at each phase in order to help them achieve their goals.

As such, we make it a point to try and remove as much of the "noise" out there in order to gain a better perspective of what's really happening under the surface in the markets.

If you are an investor, we encourage you to seriously consider the questions we asked at the beginning.  To the do-it-yourself investor, can you successfully navigate wild swings in the market?  This isn't 2013 anymore.  If you already have one or more financial advisory relationships, we hope you take time to ask them questions about planning for the eventual transition to bear market.

Tell us what you think!  Please contact us at TCA@tcafinancialgroup.com with questions and comments.  We welcome your feedback.

Have a great week.

--David, John, and Katrina

 

While we believe the information in this report is reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice and are not intended as investment advice or a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Please consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Spending Our Grandchildren’s Money

The presidential debate schedules have been announced, with a total of 6 Democratic debates scheduled between October 2015 and March 2016 on CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC, Univision, and PBS (but not on Fox, what a surprise!).  The Republicans have 9 more debates scheduled, on top of the two already aired.

“BUY and HOLD”…Or Should It Be “SELL HIGH, BUY LOW”?

Attached is a chart of the S&P 500 Index and the current bull market from the March 2009 lows:

 

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If you are receiving solicitations to buy or sell products from TCA Financial Group outside of North Carolina, please do not respond. We are located only in North Carolina with no TCA Financial representatives outside of this state.

 

 

 

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